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Look through the economic cycle power development in China


Since reform and opening, along with China's rapid economic and social development of the electric power industry has made considerable progress. In 2008, China's power installed capacity reached 790 million kilowatts, the total electricity consumption reached 3.4268 trillion kwh per capita installed capacity of 0.6 kilowatts, per capita electricity consumption reached 2580 kwh, respectively, in 1978, 13.9,13.7,10 and 9.9-fold.


To ensure the "five-second" period of the power supply, in considering hydropower, nuclear power, wind power production size, the annual installed capacity of thermal power needed to add about 50 million kilowatts. While slower growth of electricity demand to seize the favorable opportunity to speed up construction of power grids. Power fluctuations and economic growth "rule." According to characteristics of the economic cycle, the power project to be arranged in advance, to ensure appropriate power industry ahead of the economic development.

Power fluctuations and economic growth "rule"

Power industry is the basic industry of national economy, provide the impetus for the development of national economy to support. Since 1978, the national economy by analyzing the power consumption, the growth of power generation capacity, etc., is not difficult to find, the economic cycle and growth of electricity consumption, power generation installed capacity growth and the relationship between electricity supply and demand situation, there is a pattern.

Electricity consumption and economic development are closely related. Since 1978, consumption growth and national economic growth rate changes as shown. Economics tells us that economic development has a certain periodicity. Since 1978, China's economic growth was the existence of three periods, namely 1981-1989, 1990-1998 and since 1999. By the international financial crisis and other factors, in 2008 China's economy has entered a downward spiral quickly.

As the cyclical nature of economic development, electricity consumption growth is cyclical, and the growth of electricity consumption and economic development cycle, basic cycle synchronization. Although there existed the same cycle, but in different stages of economic development, the changes of the two is not the same. For example, the 1995-1998 phase of the economy under the line, economic growth fell by 3.1 percentage points, the total electricity consumption growth rate fell 6.5 percentage points decline in consumption growth rate than the decline in economic growth by 3.4 percentage points higher ; 1999-2007 economic upward phase, economic growth increased by 5.4 percentage points, while the consumption growth rate increased 8.2 percentage points, compared with a rise in consumption growth was 2.8 percentage points of economic growth; 2008, by China's international financial crisis and downward economic cycle and other factors, economic growth declined by 4 percentage points, while the total electricity consumption growth rate fell 9.6 percentage points decline in consumption growth higher than the economic growth rate by 5.6 percentage points.

Thus, electricity consumption growth as reflected in leading indicators of economic growth in the last ten years is greater than the volatility of the volatility of economic growth. When the economic growth rate down, the electricity growth rate of significant decline; rise when economic growth, electricity growth rate also increased significantly.

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